Weather: Model-Driven Markets with Public Data

Weather markets cover hurricane paths, temperature records, and extreme weather events. These are unusual prediction markets because the underlying data (meteorological models) is publicly available and highly predictive: the NHC forecast, GFS and ECMWF model runs, and National Weather Service data are all free and updated multiple times daily.

The result is a market where the information advantage belongs to whoever processes model updates fastest. Prices in weather markets tend to lag NHC forecast updates by 15-30 minutes, which creates a systematic window for traders who monitor the models directly.